Are We Entering A New Cold War?

Before I discuss the current state of international relations and the fracturing of the current global order, it’s important to discuss the original Cold War between Western Allies and those tied to the USSR from 1947 until 1991 with the Soviet Union.

The 1947-1991 Cold War

The period following the Second World War was followed by increased tensions between those states linked to the Western European States /those linked with the United States and Soviet Union Aligned Countries.

The term Cold War references the lack of any physical confrontation or direct conflict - often using ‘proxy wars’ involving third party states as a means to exercise their power, influence and differing ideologies. The result? An arms race between the two blocs in terms of traditional weapons and nuclear weapon technology. 

The 44 year power struggle was marked by constant stand-offs and fleeting moments of calm. Although important to note, the Space Race and the Nuclear Arms Race are often the seen as the key moments of the Cold War - among them the arms race was the most defining and most dangerous.

The continued threat and fear of nuclear war and annihilation stoked fear among the world as any single flashpoint between the two powerful blocs could end life on Earth with the press of a button. 

However, during these standoffs their were moments where both blocs came together to forge agreements on conduct - one of these being the “Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies” in which agreements were made between the USA, UK and the USSR to maintain space as a domain to be used exclusively for peaceful purposes, and preventing nuclear testing in orbit. 

This period of global history is then followed by a greater rekindling of tensions between the two blocs from the late 1970s to the late 1980s, and a ‘reawakening’ of the Cold War - sometimes referred to as ‘The Second Cold War’, whilst arguably only being a continuation of the early stages of the Cold War.

US President Ronald Reagan often promised to go further to end the Cold War, often referring to it as a conflict between ‘good and evil’. President Reagan’s approach is rather summed up by his 1983 address to the National Association of Evangelicals often referred to as his “Evil Empire Speech” in which he condemned the Soviet Union as an “Evil Empire”. Similarly, then British Prime Minister Marget Thatcher decried the Soviet Union as being “bent on world dominance”. 

During this period, US influence was pushed further and further into the Western States in Europe, the US spent increasing amounts of money on building military infrastructure and capability in Europe, furthering their own interests over the continent. 

The subsequent years were followed by the new leader of the Soviet Union, Mikhail Gorbachev, who attempted to revive his ailing economy through new and more radical reforms to the governance and international relations of the Union. His leadership led to a reduction and cooling of the arms race and the Soviet Union officially declaring their intentions to no longer involve themselves in the affairs of satellite states in Eastern and Central Europe.

As the Soviet Union lost their grip and control over parts of the world it paved the way for the dissolution of the Union altogether and only accelerated by the fall of the Berlin Wall and the ‘Iron Curtain’. As constituent countries within the USSR began to establish their desire for independence the USSR fractured and later ceased to exist altogether - leaving behind newly independent states in Eastern Europe and marking an end to the Cold War.

The Establishment of the Current World Order

The collapse of the Soviet Union and the USSR, prompted significant international change around the world. Many countries that were supporters of the Soviets employing their own dictatorial marxist regimes, ending up in one way or another moving towards democratisation. In the eyes of The West, they had defeated communism and outlived the Soviet empire. 

The tidal change of the power balance on the international stage helped to end many frozen conflicts around the world that were forgotten or pushed to the sidelines. Ending these conflicts further bolstered the idea in The West, of what do we do now?

The subsequent years after the fall of the Soviet Empire, led the countries of the West to feel more safe and secure, and thus able to reduce their military spending - their new purpose was to support the newly freed Soviet states in Eastern Europe.

Overtime, both NATO and the European Union grew Eastwards - a symbol of Western dominance and the attractiveness of the more Western ideals. At first Russia resisted, but eventually acclimated to it, with their “partnership for peace” programme helping them to exert some kind of influence over the Eastern countries.

This period saw the hegemonic power of the United States grow, and ultimately create a unipolar world around the US, as the centre of global politics, economics and culture. Of course there were many challenges to this onward march of US dominance, namely with the “War on Terror” - leaving much of the Middle East devastated, arguably ‘baking in’ the circumstances for future conflict and war.

The 34 years since the Cold War has overseen massive development worldwide - with the favoured capitalist model of economics gaining further traction from its ability to uplift the poorest in society, namely China.

Since the Cold War the average growth rate of the Chinese economy has been hovering around 8.8% annually - seeing its largest increase of 18% in 2021. Undoubtedly, China has fast outpaced other developing nations around the world. The country has the second highest population (recently being overtaken by India), the second highest GDP globally at $17.79 trillion USD (compared to the US’ $27.72 trillion USD). Ignoring China’s newfound influence would be idiotic.

They have since dominated global trade, due to significant market reforms allowing them to vastly undercut producers across the west - only further solidifying their economic rise. The Chinese government has also vastly outpaced the EU on technological investment, seeking to compete directly with the US.

Therefore, the current world order is once again shifting - but this time against the US. The world is increasingly becoming multipolar, with the US and China being the largest centres of influence, followed by the EU. Namely, the growing influence of ‘middle powers’ like South Korea, Brazil, Australia has also shifted the needle away from the dominance of the US, in favour of a more fractured international order.

A New Cold War?

In this new era of international relations, I think it is wrong to consider the Russian Federation (Russia) a global superpower any longer. Sure, they have around 6,000 nuclear warheads and are the largest country on earth, but arguably the end of the Cold War was an end of Russian power and influence.

Currently, the Russian economy is at a decent $2 trillion USD, but the shine begins to wear off when you take into account a myriad of other factors. Compared to the EU, Russia has a population of around 140 million people - that may seem like a lot, but compared to the EU and EU aligned states like the UK and Ukraine, having a combined population of between 500-600 million people - leaving me thinking, why are we afraid of Russia?

Combined, the EU and EU aligned states have roughly $25 trillion USD in GDP, larger than both Russia and China combined, whilst being on par with the US. Alongside this, the EU and its other European allies have a total armed personal size of 1.4 million in active duty - compared to Russia’s 1 million active duty soldiers, the US and China’s armed forces size of 2 million each) Therefore, using the logic that both the US and China are superpowers, isn’t the EU a superpower in it’s own right?

Sure, the EU and its allies lack centralisation of their armies but it’s spending is relatively matched to that of the other superpowers. Of course there is NATO, including both the US and Canada - but if recent events are anything to go by, Europe can no longer rely on the US as an ally. Europe must prepare for the eventuality of the US pulling itself entirely out of Europe and no longer bothering itself in European affairs.

The US’ contributions to European defence, whilst sizable, are ultimately not as significant as they are often drummed up to be. The US currently has around 100,000 soldiers stationed around various European countries - alongside other armed forces.

It’s also important not to ignore the number of US military bases across Europe, from Portugal all the way to Turkey - key airbases in Germany and the UK are important to NATO and the security of the US, but again it’s not as if the European NATO countries don’t also have their own capabilities here in Europe.

Both the UK and France have their own (limited) nuclear capabilities - with the UK having 250 warheads and France having 290 warheads. Now, compared to the other global nuclear powers it is rather on par with nuclear power. However, many in both the US and Russia are non-active warheads, which could bring the total of active warheads down.

So, along the lines of central global powers, there seems to be 3 main blocs with ‘middle powers’ filling the rest. China has now developed its own sphere of influence around China but also in Africa in particular, in part due to their international agenda of bringing investment into other developing countries. Often included as part of the US’ sphere of influence in the EU/European bloc, but in recent months relations have continued to strain - beginning to form separate entities equal in power and prosperity.

Previous efforts to subdue the growth of China by the US have failed, and China has only continued to grow in strength and influence. Much of this Western power being exerted on China mirrors similar attempts made towards the Soviet Union and their allies. But is it the same?

Again, the US is seeking to oppose a communist dictatorship - so in that sense it is very similar. However, the contexts of both Cold Wars are very different - we now live in a multipolar world, compared to the bipolar nature of the Cold War, but also the US and China are far more integrated than the US and the Soviet Union ever were. Efforts by the US to harm the Chinese economy, will ultimately end up harming their own economy - something we have started to see.

President Trump’s recently imposed 20% tariffs on Chinese goods (along with incoming tariffs on Mexico, Canada and Europe) have already started to harm the American economy in the form of inflation and a tumble in the stock market. The opposition to China is often becoming the mainstream in US politics on both sides of the aisle - the motivating factor? Fear. The US is afraid of losing its grip on the global stage, losing power and influence to China.

Additional differences that have also arisen in recent months are something that were never fully expected - the fracturing of the West.

As America pursues its aggressive tariff policy globally, it risks pushing its closest and most aligned allies further away. For the longest time, both Canada and the US seemed to be united together on the main stage, but now even that is at risk. 

Conflicts like these do not heal quickly, as we can clearly see with the US-China and US-Russia relationships.

The result? A more distant and independent Europe - and possibly, more united; standing for the same goals of peace, common defense and prosperity. United Europe is as strong as the other main players on the global stage - and perhaps stronger.

Another important country to talk about in terms of global affairs is India. The rapid rise of India, in part due to it’s population of over 1.4 billion people, their geographical position, but also their role on the global stage. 

For many idea is still seen as a neutral country, with no significant ties or alliances with one particular country. Despite the ongoing Ukraine War, India has not cut off ties with Russia - and they have not been afraid to do so. The country is rapidly exerting their influence in the South Asia region, including the development of their own nuclear arms.

In the coming years, India will become even more of a global player, thanks in part due to its large manufacturing base and innovative thinking.

It is for all of these reasons that I believe a second Cold War is at the very least inevitable - but most likely has already begun. 

The EU has made it clear that it intends to move away from US domination in Europe, motivating key players to move closer towards common goals and understanding, paving the way for even greater cooperation and possible federalisation of the EU - although at current, that is a very optimistic view.

Even EU foreign policy has changed. Instead of following the US’ aggressive approach to China, they have tracked their own path to relations with China. Notably, other European non-EU countries have created more cordial relations with China - like that of the UK, who recently crafted a new trade deal, including new investments in tech and green industries.

In terms of the Sino-US relationship, it could not be worse. US placed tariffs on China has led to significant backlash from the CCP, thus placing their own tariffs on US goods. For some, they will perceive this as a good thing…but arguably such policies are detrimental to the development and progress of a country. Globalisation has been the greatest force for good in the past 80 years - bringing billions out of poverty. Undoing this will take great effort, and time, but it is not impossible and it has started.

This is not even to mention the US interests in Taiwan - but at present the new Trump Administration has not made clear if they will differ from the position of the previous government.

The world we now find ourselves in is vastly different from that of the 1990s - no longer is there a united Western bloc. The world is split down by ever more increasing blocs of power and influence. Those countries and regions who were previously insignificant, have now gained power on the world stage - be it soft power or hard power. 

In the years to come, we will look back on this period of time as the single most significant moment in the 21st Century - a time where it feels as if everything is changing before our eyes and nothing remains the same.